Rate-cutting on hold for now but a positive year for monetary policy
Professor Joe Nellis is economic adviser at MHA, the accountancy and advisory firm.
The Bank’s decision to hold interest rates at 4.25% does not come as a surprise but it will not be welcome news to the UK Government as they look to bounce back from the disappointing performance of the economy in April.
The Government would have hoped for an aggressive rate-cutting strategy from the Bank of England throughout 2025 to encourage consumer spending and corporate investment, but caution has crept in and led to a pause on cuts for the moment. There are sound reasons for this — year-on-year inflation came in at 3.4% for May, considerably above the 2% target, and geopolitical volatility in the Middle East and protectionist trade policies threaten to have a global inflationary effect.
It is likely although not certain that we will see a cut in UK rates in August and perhaps one more before the end of the year, but we are unlikely to see this pattern extended into 2026.
Central banks across the world are under the microscope. The Christine Lagarde-led European Central Bank have curbed inflation and followed a sustained and fast rate-cutting strategy, leaving the main deposit rate at 2% and giving the economies of the Eurozone the best chance of pulling themselves out of the economic slump they find themselves in. Monetary policy has not been as simple for the US Federal Reserve, with rates being cut much more slowly in a tumultuous political environment — the decision this week to hold US interest rates was made despite intense pressure on Fed chair Jay Powell from the White House to cut.
Where does this leave the Bank of England? As the Chancellor pointed out in her Spending Review speech to Parliament, four interest rate cuts in the last year is good progress. While the Government has not generated the growth it so desires and the economy desperately needs, it has provided enough economic stability to enable these cuts, and the Bank’s monetary policy of today is certainly more conducive to economic growth than it was a year ago. This is a positive omen for future policy. Once we see some sort of calm return to the global economy, we can hope to see the Bank return to rate-cutting and resume the progress that it has made in the past year.